Vietnam suffers from the wobbles -- Tác Giả Roger Mitton

Australian journalist Roger Mitton is a former senior correspondent with Asiaweek and a former bureau chief in Washington and Hanoi for the Straits Times.


After all, China is their neighbour, ideological partner and biggest trading partner by far; its aggressive move was like being stabbed in the back by a close ally.

Perhaps most importantly, by an ally whose military might totally dwarfs that of Vietnam, so any kind of forceful resistance would be suicidal.

Yet something had to be done or the party’s leaders would lose face.

So after an acrimonious internal debate, the members of the Politburo, the party’s topmost body, agreed to authorise protests against China outside the Chinese embassy in Hanoi and the consulate in Ho Chi Minh City.

As well, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung sent a nationwide text message to every Vietnamese cellphone holder urging them to be ready to make sacrifices for the motherland.
It was a kneejerk, symbolic act – one that has been used before and found to have zero impact on Beijing.

So clearly something more had to be done. But while Party leaders dithered, the Vietnamese public took matters into their own hands.

They extended their peaceful protests beyond China’s diplomatic missions to factories and offices presumed to be operated by Chinese companies – and they became violent.

In their charged-up state, they did not properly check whether the plants they attacked really were Chinese-owned; they just guessed based on rumour and signage.

Thus, in the industrial zones in Binh Duong and Dong Nai provinces near Ho Chi Minh City, not only were Chinese plants razed and staff beaten up, but so too were those from Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

When Hanoi’s leaders came to their senses and realised what was going on, they mobilised security and military forces to brutally quell the rioting.

And the PM again texted all citizens telling them to remain peaceful and not take the law into their own hands.

But the damage was done and a US$7 million compensation package for the deaths and injuries and the shattered plants did not appease shell-shocked businessmen who now fear Vietnam is no longer a safe place to invest.

Worse followed when China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi promptly arrived in Hanoi to appraise the damage and read the riot act to Vietnam’s leaders.

He bluntly told them that China would continue to “take all necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty and the operations of its oil rig, which, in Beijing’s view, was clearly in Chinese waters.
He warned that Vietnam would suffer badly if it collaborated with other countries, namely the United States, in resisting China’s maritime claims. Nor should it join the Philippines in appealing to the United Nations.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson added, “Vietnam must stop its interference and harassment, stop hyping up the issue and stop whipping up disagreement to create new disputes, and properly deal with the aftermath of the recent serious incidents of violence.”

Palpably chagrined by this dressing down, Hanoi’s leaders called another politburo meeting as soon as Yang departed. Another rancorous debate ensued.

“The Vietnamese leadership has been torn about its relationship with China for some time,” said Edmund Malesky, a Vietnam expert at America’s Duke University.

One group, led by PM Dung (*), argued that Hanoi should stand firm and continue to lobby for help from Washington.

Another faction, led by Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong (*), resisted and urged that Beiijing should not be antagonised any more – and his side won.

As a result, a planned visit this month by Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh to the US has been shelved.

Basically, Hanoi has capitulated. There’ll be no more protests, no appealing to the UN, no war games with the US and no leading an ASEAN united front against Beijing. (**)

Meanwhile, China has moved a second oil rig into the disputed waters and says it plans to station another 50 there in the coming years. And that’s what it’ll do.


(*)  Ông Nỉnh, ông Ninh, ông Nảng, ông Nang.

(**) Chừng nào "mấy ổng" bay ra Tàu Sân Bay Số Bảy của Đế Quốc Mỹ?