Dictatorships tend to misread their adversaries. Let's hope China doesn't -Tác giả John Robson

Looking for another reason to worry about China? Too bad. I have one anyway.

So long ago it was chic to downplay concerns about Soviet not Chinese Communism, a book The Grand Strategy of the Soviet Union said the U.S.S.R. was especially dangerous because, like Wilhelmine Germany, it combined short-term optimism with long-term pessimism.

I was so struck by the argument that I was amazed, checking later, to see that it was basically a throwaway line: Germany in the early 20th century had a huge industrial lead over France and Russia, which it had scared into an awkward embrace with each other and Britain, in what were then the sinews of military might, from steel to petrochemicals. But France and Russia were starting to catch up fast as they overcame various technical and institutional obstacles so, the Kaiser said when the crisis came in summer 1914, “It’s now or never” and triggered World War I.

Brezhnev’s Soviet Union presented similar concerns. Not that it was economically ahead of anyone, though trendy Westerners like John Kenneth Galbraith and even the CIA thought it was doing far better than it was. But Stalin’s forced industrialization had peaked by the 1960s, giving the Kremlin rockets and tanks and prestige while the West was tearing itself apart in the upheaval of the 1960s.

In 1960 Khrushchev had actually been optimistic about a peaceful victory over capitalism in terminal decline. But by the late 1970s it was increasingly clear even to the aging Stalinists in the Kremlin that they were as strong as they would ever be, their efforts to deliver consumer abundance were failing, morale was falling and it was now or never.

For various reasons it was never, including Reagan’s muscular sunny ways. But it was surprisingly close including reaching the brink of nuclear war in 1983 over a quality-control issue in the Soviet Lada-style early-warning system. The Soviet technician who refused to press the button was of course punished for disobeying orders to end the world. That’s dictatorships for you.

Speaking of which, look at China now. Everybody’s convinced the West is falling apart because we’re too decadent, too uptight, too capitalist, too socialist or something. Including their Politburo.

They figure we lack the stomach for a fight, as the did Japanese in 1941 and Hitler in 1939. Dictatorships tend to misread their adversaries. But you can see why they might believe NATO countries are too weak and irresolute to fight, and they’ve stolen enough technology to tackle the U.S. Navy.

Now here’s the bad part. Which you thought that already was. The Chinese leadership has every reason to be pessimistic about the long run. Their brittle dictatorship faces serious challenges from Hong Kong protests and Taiwan’s example. Their environment is hideously befouled (like the Soviet); their economy a house of cards; their crowded cities unsafe including medically. And down the road they will be poor and old.

No, really. Despite all the hyperventilating about China’s economy, they have a few very rich people, quite a few comfortable ones and a lot of poor ones, plus rampant fraud. It’s just that a small per capita GDP times 1.4 billion capita gives you a big shiny number.

Even worse, their one-child policy succeeded. Oh did it. Their birthrate is so far below replacement rate that total population may start falling by 2027, but people don’t want children even now that it’s allowed. See, having children is an act of hope, and the raw brutal materialism behind Chinese communism said life is worthless in theory and treated it that way in practice. And people got the message. Oh did they.

We’re having similar problems. No Western nation has sustainable demographics, not even the U.S. But at least like Japan we got rich first so robots can nurse us as we dwindle and play music at our funerals.

The Chinese government lacks even that dubious consolation. Right now they’ve got jackboots and missiles and spy-tech companies and African mining concessions. But down the road they see bleak trouble. Four grandparents per working adult isn’t a superpower militarily, economically or any other way.

So it’s now or never. There. Something else to worry about.